The NFL Spread Champ Week 14
We went 1-3 last weekend and we look to be conservative this weekend
Last weekend was a tough one for us, going 1-3 as a few close calls didn’t fall in our favor. We’ve taken that as a wake-up call to reassess and tighten our confidence requirements on this week’s picks. The result? We’ve zeroed in on one high-profile pick we absolutely love. This is the kind of matchup that checks every box for us, and we’re backing it with full confidence. Let’s dive in and make it count!
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Why the Bears Could Cover the Spread (+3.5):
Caleb Williams’ Recent Form: The young quarterback has hit his stride in recent games, and his dual-threat ability (2,612 passing yards, 14 TDs, 378 rushing yards) makes him a challenge for a depleted 49ers defense. Williams’ improvement has sparked optimism for a team searching for offensive consistency.
Ground Game Advantage: D'Andre Swift (704 rushing yards) anchors a rushing attack that matches up well against the 49ers' shaky run defense. Establishing the run will allow Chicago to control the tempo, keeping San Francisco's offense off the field.
Defensive Pressure: With Montez Sweat (4.5 sacks), Gervan Dexter Sr. (5 sacks), and Demarcus Walker (3.5 sacks), the Bears' defensive line can disrupt Brock Purdy, especially with the 49ers missing key offensive linemen like Trent Williams.
Recent Success in the Series: The Bears have won the last two matchups against San Francisco, including a gritty win at Soldier Field in 2022. The team may draw confidence from their recent head-to-head success.
Motivation After Coaching Change: With Matt Eberflus out, the Bears may respond with a sharper and more inspired performance, aiming to reset their season under new leadership.
Key to Cover: The Bears must establish their run game early and pressure Purdy into mistakes while avoiding turnovers themselves.
Why the 49ers Could Cover the Spread (-3.5):
Home Field Advantage: Levi Stadium provides a familiar setting where the 49ers have been competitive, and the team will look to rebound from adversity with the home crowd's support.
Brock Purdy’s Resilience: Despite a challenging season, Purdy has shown the ability to make plays when needed. If given time, he has reliable weapons in George Kittle and Jauan Jennings to exploit mismatches against Chicago’s secondary.
Defensive Depth: Even with injuries, Leonard Floyd (6.5 sacks) and Maliek Collins (4 sacks) lead a pass rush capable of pressuring Caleb Williams. The defense could thrive if it forces the Bears into passing downs.
Exploiting the Bears’ Road Struggles: Chicago is 1-3-1 against the spread on the road, reflecting their inconsistency away from home. San Francisco will aim to capitalize on the Bears’ poor road performances.
Run Defense Spark: Despite their struggles, the 49ers know that stopping the run is key against the Bears. With Isaac Guerendo stepping in on offense, their game plan may focus on dominating possession through physicality.
Key to Cover: Purdy must play mistake-free football while the 49ers limit Chicago’s ground game and dominate time of possession.