The NFL Spread Champ Season Preview
NFC South Edition
The NFC South is a division in transition for 2024, with the Buccaneers and Saints retaining much of their core, while the Falcons added veteran Kirk Cousins and rookie Michael Penix Jr. to bolster their quarterback position. The Panthers, coming off a dismal 2-15 season, have undergone a significant overhaul. Despite these changes, oddsmakers remain skeptical, projecting the NFC South as the weakest division in the NFL with a combined 29-39 record. However, the division’s schedule, which includes matchups against the NFC East and AFC West, offers a chance for improvement.
Each team in the division will face a challenging set of games, but the Falcons, in particular, benefit from a more favorable schedule, with 13 of their 17 games against teams projected to win fewer than eight games. The division's performance against elite opponents and rookie quarterbacks will be key factors in determining if any team can break through and potentially send two teams to the playoffs. Despite low expectations, the NFC South has the potential to surprise, especially if its teams can capitalize on their schedules and improve upon last year’s results.
Carolina Panthers 2024 Preview:
The Carolina Panthers enter the 2024 NFL season with high hopes for improvement after a dismal 2-15 record in 2023. The team has undergone significant changes, starting with new head coach Dave Canales and general manager Dan Morgan, both of whom bring fresh perspectives to the organization. However, the biggest focus remains on quarterback Bryce Young, the 2023 No. 1 overall pick, who struggled in his rookie season, throwing just 11 touchdowns and being sacked 62 times. The Panthers have invested heavily in improving the offensive line and surrounding Young with more playmakers, including the acquisition of wide receiver Diontae Johnson and the drafting of Xavier Legette and Ja’Tavion Sanders.
Defensively, the Panthers retained most of their coaching staff, led by defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero, despite the firing of head coach Frank Reich. However, the team will feel the absence of star pass-rusher Brian Burns, who was traded to the New York Giants. To fill the void, Carolina brought in veterans Jadeveon Clowney and D.J. Wonnum to bolster the pass rush, while Derrick Brown, the team's top player from 2023, anchors the defensive line. The secondary, featuring Jaycee Horn, remains solid but will need to produce more turnovers to support the team's efforts.
Special teams remain a strength for the Panthers, with kicker Eddy Piñeiro and punter Johnny Hekker providing consistency. The team will rely on its improved offensive line and the development of Bryce Young to make strides in 2024, but significant progress is necessary for Carolina to contend in the NFC South. A successful season could see the Panthers triple their win total from last year, but much depends on Young's ability to elevate his game and the defense's ability to maintain its competitiveness.
Overall, while the Panthers have made key additions and improvements, they remain a work in progress. Vegas has set the over/under for wins at 5.5, with the over being slightly favored. However, unless Bryce Young takes significant steps forward in his development, it’s challenging to see this team surpassing that mark. We are comfortable taking the underdog pick here at under 5.5 wins, as we project them at five wins this season. The 2024 campaign will be crucial for Young and the Panthers' future trajectory.
New Orleans Saints 2024 Preview:
The New Orleans Saints enter the 2024 season with renewed optimism, driven by a fresh offensive approach under new coordinator Klint Kubiak. Last season's offensive struggles, particularly Derek Carr's inconsistency behind a shaky offensive line, necessitated significant changes. The team retained star wide receiver Chris Olave and added reinforcements to the offensive line, hoping these adjustments will lead to a more productive season. The key to the Saints' success will be the effectiveness of Kubiak's new system and the line's ability to protect Carr.
Defensively, the Saints remain a formidable unit, especially in the secondary, where they continue to excel. However, there are concerns about the aging core of the defense, with veterans like Cameron Jordan and Demario Davis needing to maintain their high level of play. The pass rush, bolstered by the addition of Chase Young, will be crucial in keeping the defense among the league's elite. The Saints' ability to generate pressure and stop the run will be pivotal in their overall performance.
The Saints also benefit from one of the easiest schedules in the NFL for the second consecutive year, which could be a significant advantage as they look to return to playoff contention. Their schedule includes matchups against several teams with sub-.500 records from last season, giving them ample opportunities to rack up wins. If they can capitalize on this favorable schedule and Kubiak's offensive adjustments take hold, the Saints are well-positioned to exceed expectations.
Overall, the Saints have a promising path ahead and are well-equipped to improve upon their 9-8 record from last season. Given their relatively easy schedule and the potential for both offensive and defensive improvements, we are comfortable taking the over 7.5 wins. With the right adjustments and a bit of luck, the Saints could find themselves back in the postseason for the first time since 2020.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2024 Preview:
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are gearing up for another season with high expectations after a surprising 2023 campaign, where they won the NFC South and made a deep playoff run. With Baker Mayfield returning as the starting quarterback after a career-best season, the team retained key players like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Lavonte David. New offensive coordinator Liam Coen brings a fresh approach, building on Mayfield's chemistry with his receivers and a solid offensive line led by Tristan Wirfs.
On the defensive side, the Bucs continue to rely on their experienced core, including Antoine Winfield Jr., who signed a record-setting contract extension. The defense is anchored by Vita Vea, with young talents like Calijah Kancey and Yaya Diaby expected to step up alongside veterans like William Gholston and Jamel Dean. However, there are some uncertainties, especially with the pass rush and linebacker depth, following the departure of key players like Devin White.
Special teams remain strong with Chase McLaughlin and Jake Camarda both coming off record-setting seasons. The Bucs have bolstered their roster with draft picks and free-agent signings, ensuring depth and competition across all units. With a balanced and talented roster, the Bucs are well-positioned to defend their NFC South title.
Overall, the Buccaneers have maintained their core while making strategic additions to improve both offense and defense. With a favorable schedule and Mayfield's continued development, we are confident in taking the over 7.5 wins for Tampa Bay in the 2024 season.
Atlanta Falcons 2024 Preview:
The Atlanta Falcons enter the 2024 NFL season with high expectations, led by a new head coach, Raheem Morris, and veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins. After a disappointing 7-10 season in 2023, the team addressed its quarterback issues by signing Cousins to a four-year deal and drafting Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth overall pick. Cousins, who is coming off an Achilles injury, is expected to elevate the play of key offensive weapons like Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts under new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson.
On the defensive side, the Falcons have retooled their roster, particularly along the defensive line and linebacker positions. With Grady Jarrett and David Onyemata anchoring the line and a promising group of pass rushers led by Arnold Ebiketie, Atlanta's defense is expected to be more aggressive under new defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake. The secondary, while talented, could benefit from additional veteran presence to solidify the back end.
Special teams are set with reliable kicker Younghoe Koo and punter Bradley Pinion, ensuring consistency in that phase of the game. The Falcons' offseason moves reflect a focus on winning now while preparing for the future with Penix waiting in the wings. The schedule poses challenges, but with a balanced offense and improved defense, the Falcons are well-positioned to contend for the NFC South title.
Overall, the Falcons have made significant upgrades on both sides of the ball and have a favorable outlook for the 2024 season. We are confident in taking the over 9.5 wins and Division Winner, as the team has the potential to reach double-digit victories and make a strong playoff push.
As of now, we're 15-5-1 and up 7.93 units, showcasing our strong preseason performance. As we approach the regular season, we're excited to offer a paid members-only email during the week between Preseason Week 3 and Regular Season Week 1. This exclusive newsletter will rank all team win over/unders into tiers based on confidence and betting amounts. Additionally, it will feature our award projections and strategic insights, giving you the edge you need for a successful season. Don't miss out—sign up to ensure you're in on the action!