The NFL Spread Champ Season Preview
AFC South Edition
We’ve just wrapped up our in-depth previews of the AFC East and AFC North, where we’ve identified the New York Jets and Baltimore Ravens as the likely division champions. Both teams are poised to dominate their respective divisions, with the Jets making a strong case in the East with Aaron Rodgers back in action, and the Ravens looking to continue their success with Lamar Jackson under center.
Now, we turn our attention to the AFC South, a division filled with intrigue and potential. We’ll be breaking down each team’s offseason moves, key stats, and what the 2024 season might hold for them. Stay tuned as we dive into the next chapter of our comprehensive NFL preview series.
Indianapolis Colts 2024 Preview:
The Indianapolis Colts are heading into the 2024 season with renewed optimism as they welcome back quarterback Anthony Richardson. After a rookie season cut short by injury, Richardson is fully healthy and ready to lead the Colts' offense. His return, combined with a strong offensive line and a promising group of skill players, gives Indianapolis a legitimate shot at making the playoffs for the first time since 2020. The Colts just missed the postseason last year, falling short in their final game against division rival Houston.
Richardson's health is key to the Colts' success, but he'll have plenty of support. The offense is built around a dynamic running game led by Jonathan Taylor, and the receiving corps, featuring Michael Pittman and rookie Adonai Mitchell, has the potential to be explosive. The addition of Shane Steichen as head coach and Jim Bob Cooter as offensive coordinator in their second seasons will further stabilize the team's West Coast offense, giving Richardson the tools to thrive.
Defensively, the Colts are solid under Gus Bradley's 4-3 scheme, but they’ll need to tighten up in key areas to improve on last season's 9-8 record. With a manageable schedule and a healthy roster, Indianapolis has the pieces in place to compete for a playoff spot, and if Richardson can stay on the field, the Colts could surprise a lot of people in 2024.
With Vegas setting their Win totals Over Under at 8.5 and with a schedule that has the potential to show 8 losses before December, we are confidently taking The Under 8.5 wins.
Tennessee Titans 2024 Preview:
The Tennessee Titans are entering the 2024 season with a fresh outlook, following a significant overhaul of both their coaching staff and roster. With Brian Callahan stepping in as head coach and Dennard Wilson taking over as defensive coordinator, the Titans have embraced a new direction. The addition of veteran players and a strong focus on analytics marks a departure from their past approach, aiming to rebuild quickly and effectively. Bill Callahan, a renowned offensive line coach, adds further credibility to this new regime.
A major change for the Titans is moving on from star running back Derrick Henry, signaling a shift in offensive philosophy. The focus now turns to second-year quarterback Will Levis, whose strong arm and quick release are key assets. The success of the Titans’ season will heavily depend on how well Levis adapts under his new coaches and whether they can refine his accuracy and decision-making. The front office is optimistic, but the team’s ability to gel with so many new pieces will be crucial.
Last season, the Titans struggled, finishing with just six wins under former coach Mike Vrabel. This year, Vegas has set their over-under at 6.5 wins, reflecting cautious optimism. If Callahan's coaching prowess and the team’s revamped strategy pay off, Tennessee could surprise, particularly if they improve on last year’s 1-5 division record. While they may not be favorites to top the AFC South, there’s potential for significant progress.
The Titans are in a transition period, but the pieces are in place for a competitive season if everything falls into place. Much will depend on health, cohesion, and how quickly the team can adapt to its new identity. If Levis can take the next step and the defense holds strong, Tennessee could exceed expectations and become a tough opponent in the AFC South. Given the current state of the Titans and all the changes they've undergone, we're leaning toward taking the under on 6.5 wins this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars 2024 Preview:
The Jacksonville Jaguars are entering the 2024 season with high expectations, but they’re also carrying the weight of a late-season collapse that defined their 2023 campaign. Head coach Doug Pederson has made it clear that the team will use last season’s disappointment as fuel, aiming to secure their second playoff appearance in three years. The offseason brought significant changes, especially on the defensive side, with a revamped coaching staff and new personnel aimed at preventing a repeat of last year’s slide.
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence remains the key to the Jaguars’ success. After showing flashes of brilliance, his development will be crucial, particularly in reducing turnovers that have plagued his career. The offense will also need to improve its run game, which struggled in 2023, despite retaining key offensive linemen and adding new talent. The Jaguars have focused on bolstering both the offensive and defensive lines, recognizing the importance of dominating in the trenches to support Lawrence and the team’s playoff aspirations.
Defensively, the addition of Ryan Nielsen as coordinator promises a more aggressive approach, with a focus on press coverage and a strong pass rush led by Josh Allen and Travon Walker. The team also addressed their run defense, bringing in veteran Arik Armstead to solidify the interior. The secondary will undergo a transition to a man-to-man scheme, with high expectations placed on Tyson Campbell and newly acquired Ronald Darby to lead the unit.
This season is pivotal for both Lawrence and the Jaguars. If the offseason moves pay off and the team can stay healthy, Jacksonville could contend in the AFC South and push for another playoff run. However, if Lawrence struggles with turnovers or injuries plague the team, repeating their past success will be a significant challenge. The moves made in the offseason set the stage, but the true test will be how well the team can execute on the field. We are confident in the Over 8.5 wins and a 2nd place finish in the division.
Houston Texans 2024 Preview:
The Houston Texans are riding high after a remarkable 2023 season, where they went from the bottom of the AFC South to division champions under rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans. With C.J. Stroud leading the charge and earning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors, the Texans have set their sights on repeating as division champs and pushing toward Super Bowl contention. However, the road ahead is fraught with challenges, starting with a first-place schedule that is widely considered the most difficult in the league.
This daunting schedule includes matchups against five defending division champions, seven playoff teams, and 11 games against teams that finished 2023 with winning records. In addition, the Texans face a "Murderer’s Row" of elite quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Aaron Rodgers. Such a demanding slate could expose any weaknesses, especially if Stroud and Ryans fall victim to the sophomore slump—a real phenomenon where both second-year quarterbacks and coaches often struggle to replicate their initial success.
Despite these challenges, Stroud’s rookie season was nothing short of spectacular. He threw for over 4,000 yards and 23 touchdowns, displaying remarkable poise, decision-making, and accuracy. With an offseason to build on that experience and the addition of Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon to the offense, Stroud is primed for even greater success. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, along with veteran mentors like Case Keenum, has worked diligently to prepare Stroud for the elevated expectations and defensive adjustments that will undoubtedly come his way.
The Texans' running game, a long-standing weakness, has been a focal point for improvement. Last season, Houston's ground attack ranked 22nd in the league, but the addition of Mixon, combined with a healthier offensive line, is expected to provide the balance necessary to keep opposing defenses honest. A more effective rushing attack will not only alleviate pressure on Stroud but also create more opportunities for big plays in the passing game.
Vegas has set the Over/Under for the Texans at 9.5 wins, but we’re confidently taking the Alt Line Under 10.5 at -185 odds and Division Winners at +105. While the Texans had a surprising and successful season last year, much of that success came from an element of surprise and a relatively easy schedule. This year, with the toughest schedule in the league and no one underestimating them, it will be difficult for Houston, or anyone in the division, to match last year’s production. While we're optimistic about their chances in the Playoffs, we don’t see the win-loss column reflecting the true quality of this team.
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