The NFL Spread Champ Season Preview

AFC East Edition

In this newsletter, we're diving deep into the AFC East, one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL. We'll break down each team's offseason moves, key stats from last season, and what their 2024 schedule holds. Whether it's the Bills' quest to maintain their dominance, the Jets' resurgence with a healthy Aaron Rodgers, or the Patriots' rebuild under new leadership, you'll get detailed insights into how each team stacks up and what to expect this season.

This series is designed to give you a strategic edge as we analyze each team's strengths, weaknesses, and potential for success. From roster overhauls to critical matchups that could decide the division, we're covering every angle.

BUFFALO BILLS:

As the Buffalo Bills approach the 2024 season, they're not just aiming to stay competitive—they're gearing up for another serious playoff run. Despite the departure of key players like Stefon Diggs, the Bills have reloaded their roster with experienced veterans and promising rookies. With Josh Allen at the helm, the team remains a powerhouse, supported by a solid defense under new coordinator Bobby Babich and a versatile offense guided by Joe Brady.

The Bills’ 2023 stats highlight their balanced attack: they ranked 4th in point differential (+140), 5th in total yards per drive (35.1), and 6th in offensive line performance according to PFF. These metrics underscore their ability to control games on both sides of the ball.

The Bills’ 2024 schedule is no walk in the park. September will be particularly telling, with matchups against the Cardinals, Dolphins, Jaguars, and Ravens. It’s possible Buffalo could come out 2-2 or worse. October looks more favorable, where a 3-1 record seems likely. The Houston Texans will not be surprising anybody this year and their projections are too high, but the Jets with a healthy Rodgers will be a challenge.

November and December bring tougher competition, with the Dolphins, Colts, and Chiefs before their Week 12 bye. The Bills could easily go 1-2 in this stretch. The final weeks include two games against the Patriots, which should be wins, but the Jets on December 29th could be a showdown, with Rodgers likely stepping up.

Overall, we see Buffalo finishing with 10 wins, and we’re confidently taking the Bills Over 9.5 for the season.

MIAMI DOLPHINS:

As the Miami Dolphins head into the 2024 season, they’re looking to build on their offensive prowess, with Tua Tagovailoa leading an attack that features one of the NFL’s most dynamic wide receiver duos in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The addition of Odell Beckham and TE Jonnu Smith only bolsters this unit, while the backfield duo of De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert promises to keep defenses on their toes. Under the guidance of Head Coach Mike McDaniel, this offense is poised to remain one of the most efficient in the league.

The Dolphins' 2023 stats reflect their potential: 1st in total yards (6,822), 1st in passing yards (4,514), and 3rd in points per drive (2.53). However, with a .450 strength of schedule, regression is a concern, particularly in a division now featuring a healthy Aaron Rodgers leading the Jets.

Miami’s 2024 schedule opens with tough matchups against the Jaguars, Bills, and Seahawks in September, where a 2-2 start is a realistic outcome. October offers a more favorable stretch, with games against the Titans, Cardinals, and Colts potentially leading to a 3-1 run. November and December bring challenges, including two contests against the Patriots, a road game against the Packers, and a crucial Week 9 showdown in Buffalo. The season closes with a tough final month, featuring matchups against the 49ers, Browns, and Jets, where the Dolphins could struggle to maintain their early momentum.

With these challenges ahead, we’re projecting the Dolphins to finish just under their projected win total of 9.5, particularly given the rise of the Jets in their division.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS:

The New England Patriots are entering a new era in 2024 after a rough 4-13 season and the departure of long-time head coach Bill Belichick. With Jerod Mayo taking the reins and rookie QB Drake Maye as the franchise’s new hope, the Patriots are in full rebuild mode. Whether Maye or Jacoby Brissett starts under center in Week 1, the team faces an uphill battle in what looks to be another challenging year.

The Patriots’ 2023 stats underscore the struggles they faced, with a -130 point differential (29th in the league) and ranking 31st in yards per drive (23.1). The offense will rely heavily on the running back duo of Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson, especially if Maye experiences the typical rookie growing pains. The receiving corps is filled with speculative options, though there’s potential for breakout performances from young wideouts DeMario Douglas, Ja'Lynn Polk, and Javon Baker.

Their 2024 schedule doesn’t offer many favors, starting with tough matchups against the Bengals, Seahawks, Jets, and 49ers in the first month. With games against the Dolphins, Bills, and Chargers later in the season, the road to recovery looks long.

While another down year seems inevitable, we’re cautiously taking the Patriots Over 4.5 wins, the -150 odds give the impression this will be easier to achieve than it will be for the Patriots. Expect New England to scrape by with 5 wins as they navigate this transitional period.

NEW YORK JETS:

The New York Jets enter 2024 with high hopes, fueled by the return of a healthy Aaron Rodgers. After a devastating Achilles tear ended his 2023 season just four plays in, Rodgers is back to guide a revamped offense featuring rising stars like RB Breece Hall and WR Garrett Wilson. The Jets have bolstered their roster with key additions, including WR Mike Williams and rookie LT Olu Fashanu, aiming to support Rodgers and elevate the team’s performance.

Last season, the Jets struggled, finishing 7-10 with a -87 point differential and ranking 31st in yards per drive (21.8). However, with a healthy Rodgers and improvements along the offensive line, a top-10 offense is within reach. The defense, under Robert Saleh’s continued leadership, remains a strong point, allowing just 23.4 yards per drive (2nd in the league).

The 2024 schedule presents significant challenges, starting with a tough road game against the 49ers and division battles against the Bills and Patriots. October includes a crucial Monday night matchup with Buffalo, while December features key games against the Dolphins and Bills that could decide the division. If Rodgers stays healthy and the Jets avoid the injury bug, they have a legitimate shot at winning the AFC East.

We see the Jets as a strong contender in the division, with a potential division title on the horizon if they maintain their health and momentum and are projecting them out Over the 10.5 win line and to win the Division at +180 odds.

As we wrap up our deep dive into the AFC East, it's clear that this division is set for an exciting season. Whether it's the Bills' reloaded roster, the Jets' potential with a healthy Aaron Rodgers, or the Patriots' rebuilding efforts, each team has a unique path ahead. With an 8-5 record in Week 1 and a 61.5% hit rate, we're already off to a strong start. Now is the perfect time to join us and get full access to our expert insights and picks. Sign up today and let’s make this your most profitable season yet!