NFL Spread Champ Week 17
2-1 Last week | 67-40-3 on the season | 3 picks this weekend
Another winning weekend is in the books as we went 2-1, pushing our record to an impressive 67-40-3 on the season. For those keeping track, that’s a 62.6% win rate against the spread—a number that every seasoned bettor knows is elite. Consistently hitting above 60% over the course of an NFL season is not just difficult; it’s nearly unheard of. Most professional handicappers are thrilled to hit 55%, but here we are, shattering those benchmarks week after week. This isn’t luck—it’s the result of sharp analysis, rigorous modeling, and a commitment to finding the best value plays on the board.
Think about what those numbers mean in real terms. At 62.6%, you’re not just surviving; you’re thriving. You’re building your bankroll steadily and reliably, which is the ultimate goal in this game. Anyone can have a hot streak, but sustaining this level of success over the grind of an NFL season takes skill, discipline, and a refusal to chase. With three more carefully crafted picks lined up for this weekend, we’re looking to continue this streak and end the regular season on a high note. When you’re rolling with The NFL Spread Champ, you’re riding with one of the most trusted names in the game. Let’s keep stacking those wins!
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New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
Why the Jets Could Cover the Spread/Win
The Jets' season has been disappointing, but their defense is built to keep games close, even against high-powered offenses like the Bills. The pass defense is elite, allowing the fewest passing touchdowns in the league and the fifth-fewest pass yards per game. This secondary is primed to challenge MVP candidate Josh Allen, forcing him to work for every yard. If Aaron Rodgers can deliver one of his vintage performances—building on his recent stretch of five touchdowns and no interceptions over the last three games—the Jets have a chance to stay competitive. A tight game could see the Jets cover, especially with their ability to limit explosive plays from the Bills' aerial attack.
Why the Bills Could Cover the Spread/Win
Buffalo has been an offensive juggernaut, averaging nearly 34 points per game over their last nine contests. Josh Allen continues to dominate, contributing 37 total touchdowns this season through both the air and on the ground. With James Cook’s consistency in the backfield—928 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns—the Bills have a balanced attack that can exploit New York’s weaker run defense, which ranks poorly in rushing touchdowns allowed. Add to that Allen’s protection in the pocket, having been sacked just 14 times all season, and the Bills are primed to put up points. When Buffalo hits 30 or more points, they almost always win, and this game has the potential for another double-digit victory.
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints
Why the Raiders Could Cover the Spread/Win
The Raiders may be sitting at 3-12, but their recent win over the Jaguars showed signs of life, especially with quarterback Aiden O’Connell returning to action. O’Connell put up a solid performance with 257 passing yards, managing the game effectively and leaning on the running tandem of Ameer Abdullah and Alexander Mattison to punch it in when needed. With their offense finally clicking and O’Connell settling back into rhythm, Las Vegas has the tools to exploit a Saints team that has been inconsistent at best.
On the defensive side, the Raiders’ line has shown flashes of dominance, and while they’re banged up, they should have enough to handle a Saints offense that has struggled mightily. New Orleans is coming off a 34-0 beatdown, and with Spencer Rattler under center, the Raiders’ defense will aim to pressure him into mistakes. If Las Vegas can capitalize on turnovers and control the tempo, they have a strong chance of covering and taking the win.
Why the Saints Could Cover the Spread/Win
Despite being embarrassed in their last outing, the Saints have a chance to bounce back at home, where they hold a 4-4 record against the spread this season. The potential return of Alvin Kamara could provide the spark this offense desperately needs. Kamara, alongside Kendre Miller, offers a dynamic running game that can exploit the Raiders’ injured defensive front. If the Saints commit to the ground game and control the clock, they can keep the pressure off Rattler and wear down the Raiders’ defense.
Defensively, the Saints have shown flashes of competence, and they’ll look to replicate that against a Raiders offense still finding its footing. If they can limit Aiden O’Connell’s options and force Las Vegas into third-and-long situations, New Orleans could turn the tide. A strong defensive showing and an improved offensive game plan give the Saints a legitimate path to covering the spread.
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders
Why the Falcons Could Cover the Spread/Win
The Falcons enter this pivotal Week 17 matchup with a potent ground game led by rookie sensation Bijan Robinson. Robinson's ability to break tackles and create explosive plays gives Atlanta a clear path to control the game against a Commanders defense that has struggled to consistently stop the run. With Michael Penix Jr. under center, Atlanta has shown flashes of versatility, leveraging play-action to keep opposing secondaries guessing. If Penix can build on his debut and capitalize on a soft Commanders' pass defense, the Falcons could keep this game close or even steal a win outright.
Defensively, Atlanta's pass rush has turned up the heat, recording an impressive 75 pressures over the past month. This improved pressure could force Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels into uncomfortable situations, potentially leading to turnovers or stalled drives. The Falcons also boast a young and improving secondary capable of limiting explosive plays, giving them the tools to compete effectively. With playoff hopes still in the picture, expect Atlanta to play with urgency and leverage their strengths to cover the spread.
Why the Commanders Could Cover the Spread/Win
The Commanders are in prime position to deliver a strong performance at home, fueled by the dual-threat brilliance of Jayden Daniels. Daniels' ability to extend plays with his legs and find top target Terry McLaurin downfield makes Washington’s offense one of the more dynamic units in the league. McLaurin, who has already surpassed 1,000 receiving yards this season, is poised to take advantage of a Falcons secondary that has struggled against elite wideouts. Furthermore, Washington’s offensive line should hold its own against Atlanta's improving but still inconsistent pass rush, giving Daniels the time he needs to pick apart the defense.
Defensively, the Commanders are anchored by the ever-reliable Bobby Wagner and a pass rush that has tallied an impressive 65 sacks on the year. This front seven has the potential to disrupt Penix’s rhythm and force the rookie into costly mistakes. Playing at home in front of a fired-up FedExField crowd and with playoff implications on the line, the Commanders’ experience and balanced roster make them the favorites to not only win but cover the 4.5-point spread.
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers
Why the Lions Could Cover the Spread/Win
The Detroit Lions have been dominant all season, and with a 13-2 record, they’re poised to secure the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Coming off a decisive 34-17 victory over the Chicago Bears, their offense is firing on all cylinders. Jared Goff has been in excellent form, spreading the ball efficiently to star receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. Both wideouts have consistently created mismatches for opposing defenses, and their ability to stretch the field should pose significant problems for a struggling 49ers secondary. Additionally, rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs has stepped up in David Montgomery’s absence, showcasing his explosive playmaking ability both on the ground and as a receiving threat out of the backfield.
Defensively, while injuries have taken a toll on the Lions, their unit has displayed resilience, making timely stops and generating turnovers. They’ve been particularly effective at limiting big plays and forcing offenses into long drives, a strategy that could frustrate a 49ers team heavily reliant on Christian McCaffrey’s production. With revenge for last season’s playoff loss as added motivation, the Lions are well-positioned to come out strong and control this game from start to finish.
Why the 49ers Could Cover the Spread/Win
The San Francisco 49ers may be 6-9, but they remain a dangerous team capable of pulling off an upset, especially at home. Despite their recent struggles, Brock Purdy has continued to show flashes of potential, particularly when given time to operate in a clean pocket. His connection with Deebo Samuel and George Kittle offers the 49ers two dynamic playmakers who can create opportunities in space. With Christian McCaffrey potentially returning to a larger role, the 49ers' offense could find the balance it desperately needs to challenge Detroit’s injury-riddled defense.
On the defensive side, the 49ers still possess elite talent, led by Fred Warner and Nick Bosa. While the unit hasn’t lived up to expectations recently, their ability to generate pressure and disrupt opposing quarterbacks remains intact. If they can force Jared Goff into hurried throws and limit Jahmyr Gibbs’ effectiveness, they’ll have a chance to keep this game within reach. Playing at Levi’s Stadium, where they’ve historically been tough to beat, provides an additional edge. With a strong game plan and execution, the 49ers could surprise a Lions team potentially looking ahead to its showdown with Minnesota.