NFL Spread Champ Week 11 MNF
And an explanation about Sunday
If you’ve been with us long enough, you know that one of our core principles is only putting out picks we feel 100% confident in. This week, we originally had a four-pick slate lined up: Thursday Night Football, two picks for Sunday, and one for Monday. But when Sunday rolled around, something wasn’t sitting right with two of the plays—Jaguars +13 and Raiders +7.5. Our head of analytics flagged them with an unshakable sense of uneasiness. While we couldn’t pinpoint the exact issue, we trust our process enough to know that when confidence wavers, we pull back.
And thank goodness we did. Neither of those picks was remotely close. The Jags got smashed, and the Raiders didn’t cover either. Had we released those plays, we’d have entered Monday at 1-2 on the week, dragging unnecessary losses into today’s action. Instead, we held our ground and remain at 1-0 with tonight’s play on deck. That restraint saved us—and you—a lot of headache and bankroll.
We’ll own the miscommunication that happened in the heat of the moment. When the decision to pull those plays was made, the heading on our original distribution referenced the full four-pick slate we had planned. That was a mistake, and we’ll make sure those types of errors don’t happen again. Transparency is critical here, and you can count on us to continue making decisions with your bankroll in mind.
It’s not just about having a big week; it’s about staying disciplined and keeping the long-term profits rolling. So while the Sunday slate didn’t go out, the decision to hold back is a win in itself. Let’s keep that momentum heading into tonight!
Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys
Why The Texans Will Cover
The Texans enter this game as the far more balanced team, and that edge starts under center with C.J. Stroud. While the rookie QB has faced his ups and downs this season, the potential return of Nico Collins to the lineup gives him a much-needed weapon in the passing game. Add that to Tank Dell's ability to stretch the field, and the Texans should have a clear advantage over a struggling Cowboys defense ranked near the bottom in points allowed and yards allowed per game.
The Texans’ defense also has the tools to control this game. Danielle Hunter, Tim Settle Jr., and rookie standout Will Anderson Jr. bring pressure that could force Cowboys QB Cooper Rush into costly mistakes. Houston's ability to limit big plays while controlling the tempo has been a key factor in keeping games manageable. Combine that with their dominance in the first half of games—where they’ve consistently outscored opponents—and Houston is set up to cover the spread if they capitalize early and avoid letting Dallas gain momentum in the second half.
Why The Cowboys Will Cover
The Cowboys are battered and bruised but not without hope. Despite Cooper Rush stepping in for the injured Dak Prescott, Dallas has the pieces to exploit Houston's weaknesses. CeeDee Lamb remains a dangerous weapon in the passing game, and while the run game has struggled, any spark from Rico Dowdle could help open up the offense. A more conservative approach could allow the Cowboys to lean on ball control, keeping the Texans’ offense off the field and the game closer than expected.
Defensively, Dallas has struggled mightily this season, but they’ll need a statement game here. Micah Parsons, even while banged up, is still the key to generating pressure on Stroud. If Parsons and Trevon Diggs can disrupt Houston’s passing attack, it could force the Texans into third-and-long situations—something they’ve struggled to convert on consistently. Combine that with a bit of pride in front of the home crowd, and Dallas could grind their way to a cover by keeping the game within a touchdown.
If you’re serious about winning, now’s the time to get in. $99 a month or $249 locks you in for a full year—that’s through Week 11 of next season. With disciplined decision-making, a proven system, and transparency at every turn, we’re delivering results you won’t find anywhere else. Don’t wait on the sidelines while others cash in. Sign up today and take control of your bankroll. Let’s win together.